The combined effects of predation, fishing, and ocean productivity on salmon species targeted by marine mammals in the northeast Pacific.

Along the northeast Pacific coast, the salmon-eating southern resident killer whale population (SRKW, Orcinus orca) have been at very low levels since the 1970s. Previous research have suggested that reduction in food availability, especially of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), could be the main limiting factor for the SRKW population. Using the ecosystem modelling platform Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE), this study evaluated if the decline of the Pacific salmon populations between 1979 and 2020 may have been impacted by a combination of factors, including marine mammal predation, fishing activities, and climatic patterns. We found that the total mortality of most Chinook salmon populations has been relatively stable for all mature returning fish despite strong reduction in fishing mortality since the 1990s. This mortality pattern was mainly driven by pinnipeds, with increases in predation between 1979 and 2020 mortality ranging by factors of 1.8 to 8.5 across the different Chinook salmon population groups. The predation mortality on fall-run Chinook salmon smolts originating from the Salish Sea increased 4.6 times from 1979 to 2020, whereas the predation mortality on coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) smolts increased by a factor of 7.3. The model also revealed that the north Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO) was the most important large-scale climatic index affecting the stock productivity of Chinook salmon populations from California to northern British Columbia. Overall, the model provided evidence that multiple factors may have affected Chinook salmon populations between 1979 and 2020, and suggested that predation mortality by marine mammals could be an important driver of salmon population declines during that time.

Requirements and availability of prey for northeastern pacific southern resident killer whales.

The salmon-eating Southern Resident killer whale (SRKW) (Orcinus orca) population currently comprises only 73 individuals, and is listed as 'endangered' under the Species at Risk Act in Canada. Recent evidence suggests that the growth of this population may be limited by food resources, especially Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha). We present spatio-temporal bioenergetics model for SRKW in the Salish Sea and the West Coast of Vancouver Island from 1979-2020 with the objective of evaluating how changes in the abundance, age-structure, and length-at-age of Chinook salmon populations has influenced the daily food consumption of the SRKW population. Our model showed that the SRKW population has been in energetic deficit for six of the last 40 years. Our results also suggested that the abundance of age-4 and age-5 Chinook salmon are significant predictors of energy intake for SRKW. We estimated that the annual consumption (April-October) of Chinook salmon by the whales between 1979 and 2020 ranged from 166,000 216,300. Over the past 40 years, the model estimated that the contribution in the predicted SRKW diet of Chinook salmon originating from the Columbia River has increased by about 34%, and decreased by about 15% for Chinook salmon stocks originating from Puget Sound. Overall, our study provides an overview of the requirements and availability of prey for SRKW over the last 40 years, while supporting the hypothesis that SRKW were limited by prey abundance in the study period.

Constrained public benefits from global catch share fisheries.

Across publicly owned natural resources, the practice of recovering financial compensation, commonly known as resource rent, from extractive industries influences wealth distribution and general welfare of society. Catch shares are the primary approach adopted to diminish the economically wasteful race to fish by allocating shares of fish quotas-public assets-to selected fishing firms. It is perceived that resource rent is concentrated within catch share fisheries, but there has been no systematic comparison of rent-charging practices with other extractive industries. Here, we estimate the global prevalence of catch share fisheries and compare rent recovery mechanisms (RRM) in the fishing industry with other extractive industries. We show that while catch share fisheries harvest 17.4 million tons (19% of global fisheries landings), with a value of 17.7 billion USD (17% of global fisheries landed value), rent charges occurred in only 5 of 18 countries with shares of fish quotas primarily allocated free of charge. When compared with other extractive industries, fishing is the only industry that consistently lacks RRM. While recovering resource rent for harvesting well-governed fishery resources represents a source of revenue to coastal states, which could be sustained indefinitely, overcharging the industry might impact fish supply. Different RRM occurred in extractive industries, though generally, rent-based charges can help avoid affecting deployment of capital and labor to harvest fish since they depend on the profitability of the operations. Our study could be a starting point for coastal states to consider adapting policies to the enhanced economic condition of the fishing industry under catch shares.

Plant-mediated community structure of spring-fed, coastal rivers.

Quantifying ecosystem-level processes that drive community structure and function is key to the development of effective environmental restoration and management programs. To assess the effects of large-scale aquatic vegetation loss on fish and invertebrate communities in Florida estuaries, we quantified and compared the food webs of two adjacent spring-fed rivers that flow into the Gulf of Mexico. We constructed a food web model using field-based estimates of community absolute biomass and trophic interactions of a highly productive vegetated river, and modeled long-term simulations of vascular plant decline coupled with seasonal production of filamentous macroalgae. We then compared ecosystem model predictions to observed community structure of the second river that has undergone extensive vegetative habitat loss, including extirpation of several vascular plant species. Alternative models incorporating bottom-up regulation (decreased primary production resulting from plant loss) versus coupled top-down effects (compensatory predator search efficiency) were ranked by total absolute error of model predictions compared to the empirical community observations. Our best model for predicting community responses to vascular plant loss incorporated coupled effects of decreased primary production (bottom-up), increased prey search efficiency of large-bodied fishes at low vascular plant density (top-down), and decreased prey search efficiency of small-bodied fishes with increased biomass of filamentous macroalgae (bottom-up). The results of this study indicate that the loss of vascular plants from the coastal river ecosystem may alter the food web structure and result in a net decline in the biomass of fishes. These results are highly relevant to ongoing landscape-level restoration programs intended to improve aesthetics and ecosystem function of coastal spring-fed rivers by highlighting how the structure of these communities can be regulated both by resource availability and consumption. Restoration programs will need to acknowledge and incorporate both to be successful.

Spatio-temporal migration patterns of Pacific salmon smolts in rivers and coastal marine waters.

BACKGROUND: Migrations allow animals to find food resources, rearing habitats, or mates, but often impose considerable predation risk. Several behavioural strategies may reduce this risk, including faster travel speed and taking routes with shorter total distance. Descriptions of the natural range of variation in migration strategies among individuals and populations is necessary before the ecological consequences of such variation can be established. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Movements of tagged juvenile coho, steelhead, sockeye, and Chinook salmon were quantified using a large-scale acoustic tracking array in southern British Columbia, Canada. Smolts from 13 watersheds (49 watershed/species/year combinations) were tagged between 2004-2008 and combined into a mixed-effects model analysis of travel speed. During the downstream migration, steelhead were slower on average than other species, possibly related to freshwater residualization. During the migration through the Strait of Georgia, coho were slower than steelhead and sockeye, likely related to some degree of inshore summer residency. Hatchery-reared smolts were slower than wild smolts during the downstream migration, but after ocean entry, average speeds were similar. In small rivers, downstream travel speed increased with body length, but in the larger Fraser River and during the coastal migration, average speed was independent of body length. Smolts leaving rivers located towards the northern end of the Strait of Georgia ecosystem migrated strictly northwards after ocean entry, but those from rivers towards the southern end displayed split-route migration patterns within populations, with some moving southward. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results reveal a tremendous diversity of behavioural migration strategies used by juvenile salmon, across species, rearing histories, and habitats, as well as within individual populations. During the downstream migration, factors that had strong effects on travel speeds included species, wild or hatchery-rearing history, watershed size and, in smaller rivers, body length. During the coastal migration, travel speeds were only strongly affected by species differences.

Survival of migrating salmon smolts in large rivers with and without dams.

The mortality of salmon smolts during their migration out of freshwater and into the ocean has been difficult to measure. In the Columbia River, which has an extensive network of hydroelectric dams, the decline in abundance of adult salmon returning from the ocean since the late 1970s has been ascribed in large measure to the presence of the dams, although the completion of the hydropower system occurred at the same time as large-scale shifts in ocean climate, as measured by climate indices such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. We measured the survival of salmon smolts during their migration to sea using elements of the large-scale acoustic telemetry system, the Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking (POST) array. Survival measurements using acoustic tags were comparable to those obtained independently using the Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tag system, which is operational at Columbia and Snake River dams. Because the technology underlying the POST array works in both freshwater and the ocean, it is therefore possible to extend the measurement of survival to large rivers lacking dams, such as the Fraser, and to also extend the measurement of survival to the lower Columbia River and estuary, where there are no dams. Of particular note, survival during the downstream migration of at least some endangered Columbia and Snake River Chinook and steelhead stocks appears to be as high or higher than that of the same species migrating out of the Fraser River in Canada, which lacks dams. Equally surprising, smolt survival during migration through the hydrosystem, when scaled by either the time or distance migrated, is higher than in the lower Columbia River and estuary where dams are absent. Our results raise important questions regarding the factors that are preventing the recovery of salmon stocks in the Columbia and the future health of stocks in the Fraser River.

Is adaptive management helping to solve fisheries problems?

Adaptive management has been widely recommended as a way to deal with extreme uncertainty in natural resource and environmental decision making. The core concept in adaptive management is that policy choices should be treated as deliberate, large-scale experiments; hence, policy choice should be treated at least partly as a problem of scientific experimental design. There have now been upwards of 100 case studies where attempts were made to apply adaptive management to issues ranging from restoration of endangered desert fish species to protection of the Great Barrier Reef. Most of these cases have been failures in the sense that no experimental management program was ever implemented, and there have been serious problems with monitoring programs in the handful of cases where an experimental plan was implemented. Most of the failures can be traced to three main institutional problems: i) lack of management resources for the expanded monitoring needed to carry out large-scale experiments; ii) unwillingness by decision makers to admit and embrace uncertainty in making policy choices; and iii) lack of leadership in the form of individuals willing to do all the hard work needed to plan and implement new and complex management programs.

Towards sustainability in world fisheries.

Fisheries have rarely been 'sustainable'. Rather, fishing has induced serial depletions, long masked by improved technology, geographic expansion and exploitation of previously spurned species lower in the food web. With global catches declining since the late 1980s, continuation of present trends will lead to supply shortfall, for which aquaculture cannot be expected to compensate, and may well exacerbate. Reducing fishing capacity to appropriate levels will require strong reductions of subsidies. Zoning the oceans into unfished marine reserves and areas with limited levels of fishing effort would allow sustainable fisheries, based on resources embedded in functional, diverse ecosystems.

Experimental Policies for Water Management in the Everglades.

Marshland drainage and water regulation have greatly altered the Florida Everglades. One of the most visible ecological impacts has been a drastic decline in nesting populations of wading birds, and several specific hypotheses have been advanced to explain the decline. Recent efforts at ecological restoration have concentrated on reestablishing more natural seasonal hydropatterns in freshwater marsh areas now used extensively by the wading birds. However, nesting colonies were originally concentrated along the estuarine mangrove edge of the system rather than around upstream marshes. Hydrological simulation models have been used to reconstruct what hydrological conditions might have been like in the natural system, and these simulations indicate that freshwater pools near and flows to the estuary have been drastically reduced, especially late in the annual spring drying season. An experimental program of increased water releases to the estuary could be used to test whether estuarine restoration is a necessary condition for recovery of wading bird populations. This program would require a substantial commitment to deliver runoff from the Everglades Agricultural Area into the marshes, and to minimize water diversions for flood control and well field recharge.

Systems analysis in the Marion Lake IBP Project.

Modelling work in the Marion Lake Project has led to a number of simulation models that trace the fate of primary production through consumer components of the lake ecosystem. Two of these models illustrate extremes in realism and generality: a simple compartment-flow system, and a detailed population model that represents density and individual growth of 24 major animal species. Both models are adequate to describe normal seasonal changes in the variables that they represent, but the simple model may give better predictions about response of the system to disturbance. Modelling efforts would have been much more successful if they had been initiated at the start of the project rather than after much field data had already been collected.